EP 1655: IRAN WAR DAY 12: Strait of Hormuz CRISIS, NO END IN SIGHT

March 11, 2026 | Wednesday
Tags: tucker-carlson, thomas-massie, donald-trump

Iran deploys explosive mines in the Strait of Hormuz, strikes oil tankers and infrastructure, and sustains a blockade despite heavy U.S. airstrikes. An NBC poll reveals majority disapproval of President Trump’s Iran war handling, with strong MAGA Republican support bucking broader opposition.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS

Iran deployed at least 10 sea-based explosive mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, effectively sealing the vital chokepoint for global energy shipments from the Persian Gulf. Concurrently, Iranian ballistic missiles struck two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and targeted oil infrastructure in Bahrain and Iraq, compounding the blockade that has persisted since the conflict’s outset. United States forces have conducted strikes on 3,000 Iranian targets, including regime facilities, the Supreme Leader’s assets, and ballistic missile platforms, with assessments indicating destruction of 85 percent of Iran’s missile arsenal. Despite these efforts, Iran continues launching drones and missiles daily, maintaining the closure with no resolution in sight. The U.S. responded by authorizing the release of approximately 300 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, alongside similar draws from global reserves, to avert immediate economic collapse.

This mining operation underscores Iran’s predictable retaliation strategy, as forecasted prior to the war’s initiation without a coherent U.S. exit plan beyond initial rapid bombing to topple the regime, which failed to materialize. The Strait’s narrow geography renders mine clearance extraordinarily costly and protracted, with each device capable of devastating passing vessels and halting 20 percent of worldwide oil trade originating from Gulf Cooperation Council nations. Bahrain and Iraq reported direct hits on refineries and export terminals, spiking insurance premiums for remaining shipments to prohibitive levels and idling supertankers off Fujairah, UAE. Global benchmarks for Brent crude surged 15 percent in the past 48 hours to $120 per barrel, while U.S. gasoline futures hit $5.20 per gallon nationwide.

The absence of a viable military or diplomatic off-ramp has locked the global economy into a precarious holding pattern, reliant on finite strategic reserves projected to last four to six months at current draw rates. U.S. strikes neutralized key launch sites but overlooked Iran’s asymmetric naval capabilities, including prepositioned mines and swarms of low-cost drones that evade superior air defenses. Gulf allies, facing acute domestic shortages, have curtailed exports by 40 percent, forcing Europe to ration industrial fuels and Asia to scramble for LNG alternatives from Qatar, already strained by conflict proximity. This engineered scarcity, entirely foreseeable upon engaging Iran, exposes the folly of commencing hostilities absent contingency logistics, thrusting consumers worldwide into sustained inflation exceeding 7 percent annually as energy costs permeate food, transport, and manufacturing chains.

MAGA WAR SUPPORT POLL

An NBC News poll released March 11, 2026, reveals 54 percent of registered voters disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the Iran war, with 52 percent opposing the initial strikes; approval stands at 41 percent across both metrics. Partisan divides are stark: 89 percent of Democrats reject the action, 58 percent of independents concur, while 77 percent of Republicans support it. Crucially, self-identified MAGA Republicans back the strikes at 90 percent, dwarfing the 54 percent support among non-MAGA Republicans, where 36 percent oppose. Younger voters under 35 reject intervention by two-thirds, and college graduates oppose it by a 60-40 margin, signaling broad electoral vulnerability.

This polling crystallizes the transformation of MAGA from an anti-interventionist force into the war’s staunchest proponent, inverting its 2016 origins rooted in Trump’s repudiation of Iraq as a “mistake” costing trillions with no American gains. In 2016, amid 86 percent Republican favorability toward George W. Bush and 70 percent viewing Iraq as successful, Trump’s America First critique positioned him as a radical outlier against neoconservative endless wars. Now, 90 percent MAGA alignment with Iran strikes—mirroring Iraq’s pretexts, risks, and lack of defined victory—demonstrates Trump’s consolidation of the GOP base into pro-war orthodoxy, sidelining dissenters like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Thomas Massie, and Tucker Carlson through ostracism.

The data quantifies Trump’s de-radicalizing effect: non-MAGA Republicans and educated voters now embody greater restraint, while low-information MAGA cohorts provide reflexive endorsement, legitimizing the conflict via perceived electoral mandate. Had a Kamala Harris administration initiated strikes—lacking primary victories, burdened by 2020 and 2024 election skepticism, and Biden’s covert nomination maneuver—support would plummet below 20 percent, galvanizing unified opposition across Democrats, independents, and Republicans. Trump’s victory insulates the war from such scrutiny, breeding complacency that entrenches establishment priorities over original promises of no new Middle East entanglements. This cult-like fidelity, evident in 90 percent backing despite Strait disruptions and $10 billion expenditures, forecloses radical realignment, demanding a post-Trump rupture to revive nationalist momentum before midterms erode GOP majorities on unpopular foreign adventurism.