EP 1660: IRAN WAR DAY 19: Israel Strikes IRANIAN OIL, Iran RETALIATES

March 18, 2026 | Wednesday
Tags: donald-trump, joe-kent, tulsi-gabbard, david-sacks, jd-vance, tucker-carlson, charlie-kirk, peter-thiel

Israel launches a major airstrike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, escalating energy warfare after U.S. strikes on Kharg Island, prompting Iranian retaliation against Qatar, UAE, and Saudi facilities amid surging oil prices. Joe Kent resigns from the ODNI’s Center for Counterterrorism, denouncing the Iran conflict as an endless war for Israel while Tulsi Gabbard defends President Trump’s threat assessments.

ENERGY WAR ESCALATION

Israel conducted a major airstrike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, the world’s largest shared with Qatar, marking a shift to energy warfare after weeks of restraint. This followed U.S. strikes on military assets at Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export hub handling 90 percent of its shipments, on the prior Friday. Initial reports indicated Trump administration approval for the Israeli action, aimed at pressuring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, closed by Iranian drones and missiles disrupting global oil, gas, and fertilizer flows. Iran retaliated immediately, striking natural gas facilities in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates alongside oil targets in Saudi Arabia, including debris near a Riyadh refinery. Brent crude surged to $120 per barrel from stabilization around $90-$100, despite U.S. efforts like releasing strategic reserves and easing Venezuelan exports. Qatar condemned the Israeli strike as a “dangerous escalation,” while Arab states expressed fury at the U.S. for not preventing it. Hours later, Trump posted on Truth Social denying U.S. awareness: “Israel… has violently lashed out at a major facility known as the South Pars gas field in Iran… The US knew nothing about this particular attack… No more attacks will be made by Israel… unless Iran unwisely decides to attack… Qatar, in which instance the U.S…. will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars gas field.”

This escalation exposes the fragility of U.S. strategy in a war of attrition now costing $1.9 billion daily, with Pentagon chief Kevin Feinberg requesting $200 billion from Congress to replenish precision munitions depleted in over three weeks of strikes totaling thousands of targets. Deployments include 5,000 Marines on amphibious ships to the Persian Gulf, potentially reinforced by thousands more ground troops for options like securing Hormuz tanker passages, seizing Kharg Island, or targeting Iran’s enriched uranium stocks. The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier withdrew to Greece for repairs after onboard incidents, signaling strain. Allies rebuffed Trump’s weekend appeals for naval aid from NATO, Japan, South Korea, India, and China, who face the sharpest energy shocks as primary Persian Gulf importers; responses from France, Germany, the UK, and others ruled out involvement. Hitting energy infrastructure risks mutual destruction, as repairs to refineries, pipelines, and fields could take years, constraining a fifth of global oil and key LNG supplies, fueling permanent inflation amid existing pressures since 2022.

The maneuver threads a narrow path between stalemate and full invasion, telegraphing resolve to Iran—whose IRGC maintains seven-deep succession chains—without committing ground forces prematurely. By greenlighting limited strikes post-allied refusals, the U.S. punishes non-helpers like Asia through retaliatory ripple effects, while testing Iran’s threshold. Trump’s denial retroactively frames Iran’s Qatar hit as a miscalculation, preserving off-ramps, but Iran’s sustained drone swarms (millions produced cheaply) and missile barrages prove air-sea power insufficient for Hormuz clearance absent regime collapse. Ground preparations indicate mission creep toward coastal beachheads or island assaults, vulnerable to inland drone fire, echoing historical escalations where initial limited actions expanded amid sunk costs and ally pressures for regime change. Gulf states, now facing daily bombings on cities and infrastructure, demand total Iranian capitulation, narrowing U.S. exit options as economic contagion threatens AI-driven growth via compute shortages and broad price hikes.

JOE KENT RESIGNATION

Joe Kent, director of the ODNI’s Center for Counterterrorism under Tulsi Gabbard, resigned Tuesday, publishing a letter on Twitter to Vice President JD Vance asserting Iran posed no imminent threat to U.S. core interests, charging the war echoed Iraq-style dragging by Israel and its lobby. Kent refused to support “sending US soldiers to die in the Middle East… for another endless war on behalf of a foreign government.” He appeared on Tucker Carlson’s show Wednesday, elaborating for 90 minutes to two hours (initially paywalled at $6), critiquing war pretexts while praising the 2020 Soleimani killing as America First—despite its role in escalating tensions. In a Senate hearing the same day, Gabbard faced direct questioning from Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) on Iran’s threat status, deferring: “Whatever Trump determines is a national security threat, that is true,” insisting presidential judgment overrides her role aggregating 17 agencies’ intelligence. Ossoff countered it was her duty to assess threats independently. Gabbard echoed this on Twitter post-resignation, affirming Trump’s determinations. Kent’s FBI investigation for pre-war leaks surfaced amid Carlson’s FARA claims against himself for alleged Iranian contacts.

These events underscore intelligence community fractures, with Kent’s exit—after ODNI roles—highlighting pretext disputes central to war justification. Trump’s claims of Iranian imminence, echoed by Israel, clashed with Kent’s denial, positioning Gabbard as deferential amid her past non-interventionism opposing Iran war. Connections abound: Kent received Peter Thiel max donations for 2022 congressional runs; Thiel links to David Sacks (White House AI czar, first administration war critic), Vance (Buckley Carlson in press office, 45 Fox appearances), and Carlson (1992 ties). Sacks, PayPal co-founder with Thiel, critiques war alongside Kent-Carlson, forming a nexus tied to Vance’s 2028 ambitions amid reports of Trump-Netanyahu splits.

This orchestrated dissent signals Vance network maneuvers to salvage prospects eroded by war drags, planting anti-war narratives via leaks, paywalled exclusives, and media blitzes while avoiding direct Trump confrontation. Kent’s flip from 2024 pro-Israel aid/nuke strikes advocacy, CIA ties (like Carlson’s father, Vance’s Yale-Thiel path), and vague Charlie Kirk assassination hints (implying FBI blocks on foreign intel) fuel suspicions of psyops, potentially preempting FARA scrutiny or deep-state crackdowns on anti-war voices. Amid $200 billion asks and Marine surges, such internals distract from operational realities, boosting controlled opposition to pressure Trump without derailing Israel-aligned escalations, ensuring continuity in a conflict defying quick victory.